And then there were seven.

Continuing developments around Vancouver’s 2018 civic election include polling, endorsements and withdrawals.

Latest Canseco poll:  taken after Patrick Condon’s unfortunate departure from the running.  And then there were seven. 

Undecided: 35% (down from 47% in June)
Decided: 65%

  1. Ken Sim – NPA:  26% of decided voters
  2. Kennedy Stewart – Independent 25%
  3. Ian Campbell – Vision 20%
  4. Shauna Sylvester – Independent  11%
  5. Wai (I hate bike lanes) Young – Coalition Vancouver  8%
  6. Hector Bremner – Yes Vancouver 5% (down from 10% in June)
  7. David Chen – Pro Vancouver 4%

Reviewing Vancouver civic elections from 2005 to 2014, the top two mayoral vote-getters totaled between 86% and 94% of votes cast. This latest July poll has the top two totaling 51%, and the top 3 at 71% — pointing to a broader voter perception of candidate suitability (so far at least). Despite there being three left-leaning candidates for mayor polling over 10%, the right-leaning leader is just barely ahead (well within the poll’s margin of error). (With thanks to Mario Canseco).

It continues to look as though the next mayor of Vancouver could be elected with a small percentage of votes (26% or around 50,000 votes).  This is unfortunate, since it favours a candidate with a minimally-split, steady, partisan, committed base among voters. Certainly, it’s fodder for electoral maneuvers on the airwaves, using hot buttons, voter alienation tactics, targeted-issue platforms, dog whistle slogans and so on. As in “What blocs can I grab to add up to 50,000 votes?”   Or:  “Housing shmousing — who’s mad about something, anything?  Maybe bike lanes will work this time.”

Note that an independent mayoral candidate (although left-endorsed) is polling very well.  Plus, looking at council candidate numbers, it seems likely that the next council will not be party-dominated. Which points to reduced decision-making and policy-setting originating from some shadowy party HQ.

Endorsements

The Vancouver District Labour Council (@VancouverDLC — the lefty’s lefties, with 60,000 members) is busily endorsing Vancouver civic election candidates.  Aside from influencing voters, this seems to me an exercise in defining who’s a lefty in a race where the distinction may be irrelevant.

Vancouver Mayor:  Kennedy Stewart (Independent)

Vancouver Councilor:

  • Vision 4 (Diego Cardona, Heather Deal, Tanya Paz, Wei Qiao Zhang)
  • COPE 2  (Derrick O’Keefe, Jean Swanson)
  • Green  2  (Adriane Carr, Pete Fry)
  • OneCity 2 (Christine Boyle, Brandon Yan)

NPA councillor Hector Bremner, sinking in the Canseco poll, has talked to Charlie Smith at the Straight about Yes Vancouver’s platform.  He says:  remove paperwork obstacles to increasing housing supply, eliminate the urban design panel, more housing on currently-exclusionary single-family zones (76% of land area), mandate worker housing on False Creek Flats, among other things.

This little snapshot in time is sure to be thoroughly obsolete to the point of laughability within a few weeks or months.  But here it is.

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