Cambie Report Episode 4: Mario Canseco Research Co (49 minutes)
Here’s my completely selective synopsis of the main ideas zipping past on this fun podcast.
Polling is weird; an art as much as a science; new poll — the mayoral race
Canseco on Research Co: Focus on elections and the public face; people need actionable data, and not an instant poll from a website (easy to hijack); preferred polling method is online panels, especially if public policy is involved; recent polling failures (why?) – need to poll close to election day, since events move quickly; need to change from a focus on the horserace to focus on specific issues more often.
Vancouver civic election: Carr preference? Will Greens run a candidate? Perhaps this is the time, since even boomers are looking for a change from the Vision/NPA sniping; polling at a muni level – who’s paying attention? Lack of incumbents – a new ball game; perhaps not even an incumbent party; name recognition is a big issue; low level of public engagement is an issue; the mayor’s name is the lightning rod – Vision (the party) less so, giving an opportunity if Robertson is gone; so who’s the heir; but the demographics and concerns of the base has shifted – children, housing.
NPA: low name recognition for all mayor candidates; is NPA nomination a big boost?; structure still there, but less money available; nominations are divisive; NPA’s level of negative perception is growing a bit even with good levels of support in certain parts of the city; Pay only scant attention to the by-election results, except for vote-splitting.
OneCity: need to be more than one person; will be strongly affected by COPE
COPE: more like legacy support with over 55’s; but could still swing 9% of the vote
The Left: how many parties? the great equalizer; consider the lefty-looking PM and Premier; bodes ill for right-conservative candidate if people see a need for cooperation between gov’t levels
Polling Data Usage: data mining has been around for a long time; the final week is crucial as an indicator of where to focus time and energy. Demographic trends that jump out: Green support wide-spread, no longer fringe; but people often vote for candidates & parties they don’t like much – in Oct 2018, slate voting may be less prevalent. Issues other than housing – people who wonder if they can stay in the city, and changing nature of the cosy relationship between civic parties and developers; campaign will be more grassroots and the media landscape is crucial
Research Co Future Focus: more than Vancouver; the issue landscape; less focus on the horserace;
Last Question: issues ranked next after housing? Transportation — Broadway subway, viaducts.
Mario Canseco: @Mario_Canseco Researchco.ca