July 11, 2017

Construction Industry On GreeNDP

Warren Frey writes in the Journal of Commerce about his interviews with a group of construction industry spokespersons.  What, he has asked, is the industry’s view of the political climate in BC now that the GreeNDP alliance will form government?
Here’s a sample of hard-nosed opinion, very much on the topic of jobs, and where they may or may not come from:

BC Building Trades executive director Tom Sigurdson said he didn’t see the shift in government changing the temperature of the industry.
“There will no doubt be a change in attitude from the soon-to-be-sworn-in Horgan government but I believe that will be more about developing sustainable economic opportunities instead of cheerleading for projects that are merely conceptual,” Sigurdson said.
“The Clark administration promised LNG development that would lead to 100,000 jobs in the construction industry. We have yet to see 1,000 construction jobs in LNG development. I would hope the Horgan administration will be more realistic in their announcements regarding economic development,” said Sigurdson.

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Leave a Reply to Thomas BeyerCancel Reply

  1. One of the largest LNG projects, and most controversial sites, will employ 4,500 people. It will also produce 360 million tonnes of CO2 and use up a sizeable chunk of the nation’s total carbon budget set to do our share of keeping warming below two degrees. The article mentions that electricity instead of gas should be used to power the liquefaction process. The raison d’etre for Site C anyone?
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/skeena-wild-pacific-lng-gas-bc-project-controversy-liberals-1.4199775
    The above article appeared just as 14,000 people have been evacuated from Interior towns threatened by forest fires, which appears to be heading for a record-breaking and most costly year. Again.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-weather-1.4199125
    As far as we should be concerned, the need for walkable and transit-oriented communities and a strong tech and sustainable innovation economy cannot happen quickly enough.

  2. As a developer in the Okanagan all I can say is that BC’s building code could be simplified and/or streamlined. Municipalities all could approve projects faster. Smaller towns generally far faster than larger cities. Steep house prices increases not unusual worldwide – Canada very normal https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/06/canada-not-alone-in-house-price-mania/ as #GenY folks look to buy, interest rates are low everywhere, folks move to cities, baby boomers live longer, city permitting takes longer and longer, immigrants like to buy and foreign money sloshes around looking for safety and a decent yield !
    Under a GreeNDP government we will see more public money for larger infrastructure projects (bridges, LRT lines, hospitals, even social housing projects ..) and likely less private money. Regarding social housing and the new government you may be interested in this market based analysis of the Vancouver housing market http://goodmanreport.com/content/2017%20Mid-Year%20Report_web.pdf by one of the leading realtors selling apartment buildings in the Lower Mainland to cut through the hype of “100,000 new rental units” for example and why prices will remain very very high in MetroVan.

    1. Interest rates have just seen their first increase in five years today. There are a number of ways to lower the outrageous prices of housing in some parts of the Metro, and this is a biggie because it will lower demand.
      I also note some of the recently sold housing stock in transit-connected New West is a lot lower than Vancouver and parts of Burnaby and Richmond. This shows that housing prices are relative to location and local incomes. New West ain’t exactly Dunbar with Crème income levels, but it’s a decent and nice alternative / second choice, especially with multi-family and condos.

      1. Exactly Alex. MetroVan prices not all that high once one ventures further out into NewWest, Burnaby, Delta, Coquitlam or Surrey. Only Vancouver will remain sky high and that is what the media loves to focus on. If “Vancouver” is defined as “MetroVan” then average condo price not all that bad. A quick search on http://www.realtor.ca will show ample of 2BRs under $400,000 and oodles under $500,000.
        Higher interest rates will not affect prices all that much but it will make it even tougher to buy. The OFSI rules I linked above especially will make it tough and are ill advised in my opinion as they predominately affect lower income earners and first time buyers. So much for “benefiting the middle class”.
        Unless province and/or cities throw loads of cash at the affordability problem, hand out free or subsidized land or ease borrowing significantly we will see little impact in rental affordability the next few years.

  3. There is a huge trend becoming apparent with respect to renewables: By the time you hear new news about them, that news is already outdated. BC was only two years ago touting LNG. The wild claims about the industry by supposedly educated cabinet ministers and the (soon to be former) premier seem outrageously naïve with every new report that either condemns the claims with real evidence on actual production data from tight rock and methane release, or dismisses them with the new evidence of the increasing economic power of wind and solar. The NDP-Green government had better pay attention.
    Bloomberg New Energy Finance has just released a report on the latest findings on renewables. A picture is just coming into focus that portray fossil fuels as doomed over the next decade, especially in producing electricity. The 2020s will probably be an historical decade of transition.
    https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#findings
    1. Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity
    72% of the $10.2 trillion spent on new power generation worldwide to 2040 will be invested in new wind and solar PV plants.
    2. Solar energy’s challenge to coal gets broader
    Solar is already at least as cheap as coal in Germany, Australia, the U.S., Spain and Italy. The levelized cost of electricity from solar is set to drop another 66% by 2040.
    By 2021, it will be cheaper than coal in China, India, Mexico, the U.K. and Brazil as well.
    3. Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster
    Onshore wind levelized costs will fall 47% by 2040, thanks to cheaper, more efficient turbines and advanced OPEX regimes. In the same period, offshore wind costs will slide a whopping 71%, helped by experience, competition, and economies of scale.
    4. China and India lead in energy investment
    They account for 28% and 11% of all investment in power generation to 2040. Just under a third of Asia Pacific’s investment in energy will go to wind, a third to solar, 18% to nuclear and 10% to coal and gas.
    5. Batteries and flexibility bolster the reach of renewables
    Utility-scale batteries increasingly compete with natural gas to provide system flexibility at times of peak demand. In conjunction with small-scale batteries, this will help renewable energy reach 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the U.S., 55% in China and 49% in India by 2040.
    6. Electric vehicles bolster electricity use
    In Europe and the U.S., EVs will account for 13% and 12% of electricity demand by 2040. Charging EVs flexibly, when renewables are generating and wholesale prices are low, will help the system adapt to intermittent solar and wind.
    7. Homeowners’ love of solar grows
    By 2040, rooftop PV will account for as much as 24% of electricity in Australia, 20% in Brazil, 15% in Germany, 12% in Japan, and 5% in the U.S. and India. This, combined with the growth of large-scale renewables, reduces the need for existing large-scale coal and gas plants.
    8. Coal’s point of no return
    Sluggish demand, cheap renewables and coal-gas fuel switching slash coal use by 87% in Europe and 45% in the U.S. by 2040, while coal generation continues to grow in China but reaches peak in 2026. A mere 18% of planned new coal power plants will ever get built. That means 369GW of projects stand to be cancelled.
    9. Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think
    Gas-fired power sees $804 billion in new investment and 16% more capacity by 2040. But save for the Americas, where gas is plentiful and cheap, gas plants will mainly act as one of the flexible technologies needed to help meet peaks and provide system stability.
    10. Global power sector emissions peak in 2026
    CO2 emissions from power generation increase by a tenth before peaking in 2026, then falling faster than we previously estimated, lining up with China’s peak coal generation. However, a further $5.3 trillion investment in 3.9TW of zero-carbon capacity would be required to keep the planet on a 2-degrees-Celsius trajectory.
    There are many related articles. This is a good one:
    https://thinkprogress.org/video-almost-everything-you-know-about-climate-change-solutions-is-outdated-a1dc0380b96

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