October 21, 2016

POVs on the Sunshine Coast Connector

Two points of view on the Sunshine Coast Connector.  First up, Sun columnist Stephen Hume:
hume
One group of Sunshine Coast residents wonders why not replace ferries with fixed links where that makes sense and make necessary remaining ferry links less expensive and more efficient? …
Gary Fribance of the Third Crossing Society says its economic study found that building two new spur roads from existing highways at a provincial cost of $667 million – around the price of a new football stadium roof or a convention centre – would yield actual savings of $1.3 billion over the first decade.
By comparison, the Coquihalla Highway cost $848 million to build and recovered $845 million from tolls. …
The links would boost a tourist economy that contributed about $60 billion to provincial GDP over the past decade and generates more than 127,000 jobs, many in small towns desperate for employment growth.
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It argues that increasing, improving and lowering the cost of access with these road links will generate significant economic diversification in regions hostage to the boom and bust cycles of resource-based industry.
“The roads will connect ski meccas from Vancouver Island to Whistler and many Interior resorts,” the paper says. “On Malaspina Peninsula there is potential for a new resort at Triple Peaks (three peaks with more than 2.1 kilometres of elevation) currently accessible from the proposed Third Crossing in the Goat Lake area.” …
“Boldness in improving transportation has always been a hallmark of economic expansion,” the paper says. It points to the growth that accompanied the opening of a Hope-Princeton highway in 1949, completion of the Trans Canada Highway through Roger’s Pass in 1962, the building of the Coquihalla route to Kamloops in 1987 and a connector to the Okanagan in 1990.
The group foresees industrial expansion with road access to a proposed LNG plant at Woodfibre, better access to sources of construction aggregates from limestone and gravel quarries and so on.
“It’s not just about the Sunshine Coast,” Fribance says. “The Powell River/Sea-to-Sky road will create a new connection between the Interior and coastal communities. It will lead to efficiencies all along the coast. Congestion will be relieved in major ways on the North Shore, in Horseshoe Bay, Nanaimo and Metro Vancouver.

 
Worth bringing forward: Michael Gordon’s comment on “Do We Need a Sunshine Coast Fixed Link? – 1

Michael Gordon
This week our ‘Sunshine Coast correspondent,’ John Whistler,* begins a series that will provide background and comment on yet …
It’s clear to me why the Province is pursuing this as a possible major Provincial investment in road infrastructure linking jobs in metro Vancouver to these unique slower rural places and taking away our beloved ferries and replacing the experience of being in a car and not a shared passage, just like all that is offered to most North American folks…apparently what it is about is this: they want more bedroom sprawling communities on the Sunshine Coast communities that are now slower, rural, nice smaller communities and in a setting of nature.
Could we please refocus the Province on building rapid transit, walkable communities in the lower mainland? And continue to let the ferries provide the lovely passage, a journey across Howe Sound, to be enjoyed to the Sunshine Coast
I think it is a good thing that our Gulf Islands and the Sunshine Coast are more time consuming to travel to. There is a wonderful sense of passage getting on a ferry and it does temper the character of these places and respects them as slower more rural, small community places, rather than sprawling bedroom communities with folks commuting to jobs in Metro Vancouver.
dsc04280
Meanwhile, in the more urban areas, we need more certainty on investments into transit, biking and walking to create more high and medium density walkable communities that respect the Metro Vancouver plan, as well as providing single family homes who prefer that choice of housing.
Could we please have some clarity on the intent and funding for Provincial and Translink investments in transit, renewals of our bridges like the Patullo, cycling routes.
So that is my take on this focus on building roads to the Sunshine Coast…it’s such a lovely place and some of that is a result of the ferry connection and riding a ferry somewhere to more remote communities of BC, defines a unique and valued experience of living here in our region of our world, a lovely sense of shared passage on the water anticipating where we are travelling to…why change that.

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Comments

  1. I wonder how many here were nodding their head in agreement with Michael Gordon?
    And I wonder how many of those same readers would be slamming that attitude if it was expressed by somebody living off Commercial Drive or in Dunbar…

    1. A persuasive view, until you realize that greenfield Dunbar and Grandview Woodlands were built out a century ago, and the developed geography they sit on is surrounded by the sea. On the Sunshine Coast with new highways it’s all about new greenfield development.

  2. Being a nerdy engineer, I am always in favour of these sorts of things. But in the end, the government will decide. I suspect that the whole thing will fade from the radar screen after the election.

  3. If 30,000 now live on Lower Sunshine Coast and we get 100,000 more in say 20 years, or 5000 new folks or 2500 new house per year, plus $200,000 in higher house prices immediately we’d see those rough provincial benefits PER YEAR
    Assuming 0.5% is provincial mill rate province would get 0.5% x 10,000 existing houses x $200,000 more per house = $10M per year more in existing property taxes
    PLUS
    2500 new houses at say $400,000/year on average x 0.5% property taxes = $5M
    PLUS
    2500 new houses at say $400,000/year on average times $6000 in property transfer taxes = $15M
    PLUS PST, employment income taxes, corporate income taxes, tourism taxes .. maybe another $10-20M
    = $50M+ per year
    That is worth a $2-3B or so investment, but not necessarily $5B or more.
    This kind of analysis is missing in the proposal but may exist in some drawer of some minister’s assistant in Victoria.
    As such to me a Lower Sunshine Coast connector probably makes sense (via Anvil Island as it is 1/2 h shorter), although better, cheaper alternatives such as hourly car ferry service, faster service, additional passenger-only ferries from downtown Vancouver to Gibsons and Sechelt need to be considered also.
    What we call “Lower Mainland” today doesn’t include Lower Sunshine Coast but it could. We can post-pone a link to Powell River to 2050 or 2100.
    An investment to add more capacity to North Shore like N-Van and W-Van (i.e. third crossing, subway under Marine Drive, rail link via Lionsgate or Second Narrows, or widened bridge capacity) benefiting 200,000+ people probably makes more economic sense, and that too needs investigating, in parallel or in lieu of this Sunshine Coast connector.

    1. I can assure you Thomas, that today some municipalities on the north shore do not want more residents and therefore do not want a new crossing because they feel that would encourage development.
      The large growth areas will continue to be Burnaby, and particularly Langley and Surrey.

      1. Of course, we all understand that. Not as many eco-socialists there though as on the Gulf Islands and Southern Vancouver Island. Some actually want growth, new housing, more opportunities for their kids and decent JOBS. Some already commute 3-4 times a week which is doable from Sechelt and south. They don’t feed quite as much off the government trough as much as Southern Vancouver Island is with 4 groups sucking on the governments teets: civil servants serving the provincial government around Victoria, Navy, students and seniors. The nutter crowd like on the anti-everything Gulf Islands is further north, on the southern Upper Sunshine Coast south of Powell River. of course if we ever legalize Marijuana Powell River and area will be a major producer !

    2. As usual, Thomas only looks at half the equation. If more investment goes to the Sunshine Coast then less will occur in the metro area that people are sprawling away from. No net gain in investment or tax base.
      BUT it requires more and bigger bridges at a cost to the taxpayer – and we degrade more of our coastal areas with car-dependent sprawl.
      A lose lose.
      .

      1. To reduce density we need more area for people. Not everyone loves density.
        Gibsons could easily have 50,000+ people and be quite charming as opposed to the current roughly 5000, for example.
        Growth onto Sunshine Coast does not mean no growth or no new bridges / LRT into Langley, Surrey etc .. we can do both !

        1. Sure, lets remain in the cave. Far too risky to venture outside and explore the hinterland.
          BC is vast. Let’s get some access to it. That means roads, tunnels and/or bridges. And yes, subways too for congested urban areas. Unfortunately our timid politicians do neither. Cave managers really. We need more explorers ! Isn’t this how this country was developed ?

        2. Your still avoiding the challenge, Thomas. Explain how it will increase the tax base.
          BC may be vast, but the planet is small. Perhaps a good ideas to save a little bit of it for those other creatures who share it with us. But before you comment on this, please answer the former.

        3. More areas to be developed and accessible = higher tax base for housing & commerce.
          Vancouver used to be VERY remote and had no rail link nor an airport. That was a mere 120 or so years ago.
          BC is vast, as is Canada. To get access you need roads.

        4. No one, if given the opportunity to really look at it, will automatically reject “growth.” There is good growth and bad growth, excessive growth and negative growth. You can still achieve growth at a sane, humane and sustainable rate in Sunshine Coast communities by modestly improving and diversifying ferry service at a much more affordable cost than asphalt dreaming. I agree with Michael Gordon that the ferries act as a traffic and growth regulator on road traffic, which is deleterious when allowed to subsume communities without restriction.

        5. Thomas, this will be third time I’ve asked you to explain how sprawling to the Sunshine Coast increases investment and expands the tax base. We can all see that it spreads investments to other places. But you still haven’t explained how it increases either over-all investment or the tax base.
          Many of us see that it would cost us a lot of money. But for what?

    3. Good work, it’s back-of-envelope, but shows approximate magnitudes, and they are significant, even without applying all sorts of multipliers.
      Without doubt, the Langdale Bridge hopscotching Anvil is by far the best option. By far. Build it!
      The Langdale Rd option (simply the morning side drive identical to Hwy 99, and almost expensive as the Langdale Bridge) would suffer the same problems as Hwy 99; debris, rockfall, landslides, and also curvy. Road closures because of those problems, as well as serious accidents, would result in the same hardships suffered by Squamish, Whistler & Pemberton. There are even aesthetic values, for example the driving/passenger experience. The Langdale Bridge would break up that monotony with a spectacular height, the same as Lion’s Gate.
      On the bridge to Powell River, I completely agree with you; any bridge should be left for future generations to decide, after several decades which will determine the extent to which the Gibsons, Roberts Creek & Sechelt areas are settled & used. The costs to bridge to 14,000 people and limited business (and which may dwindle in coming decades), is far, far too excessive.
      That huge long ‘link’ road to Powell River is ridiculous. It badly intrudes into fairly pristine mountain valleys, and would not create access to new farmland or settlement areas. It is excessively long for the amount of traffic volume. In the decades after the Langdale Bridge is built, the Sunshine Coast Hwy 101 will be improved, and will be used for most direct journeys in between Powell and Vancouver.

      1. Good work?
        Thomas has done some rough projections on how an expensive highway project will move some investment to another sprawling area. He has not calculated the loss of those same investments in the rest of the region. You want massive taxpayer-backed, sprawl-inducing road projects? Solves nothing.

  4. This letter was forwarded to Stephen Hume. I will post his response, if any.
    Hi Stephen,
    I found your October 20th article illuminating, more for your tone of agreement with the interviewee over the economic cost before actually doing the math.
    Question: Considering that it would take 6,500 years for the total subsidy on both the Metro Vancouver – Sunshine Coast BC Ferry runs to equate to the estimated cost of bridges and highways to Powell River, doesn’t expanding and diversifying the ferry service make more sense?
    I say that in the context of nearly $20 billion in freeways and bridges between the Port Mann, the proposed Massey project and now a Sunshine Coast trial balloon. All that to service the private automobile at great cost to public finances in BC, including a growing provincial debt, and to the environment. Is this not some kind of spending orgy that equals the potential public cost of developing the questionable BC LNG industry?
    You quoted someone from Alberta who waited 12 hours for a ferry in the Horseshoe Bay parking lot last summer, like it was a crime. One could have simply informed him about the on-line reservation system. Did you also consult with folks in Gibsons, Sechelt and Powell River about a parallel fast, efficient passenger ferry service to several docks in Metro Vancouver and other Sunshine Coast communities? The ferry fees would be about 1/5th the cost per passenger than schlepping a car across the water, and there would be zero cost for vehicle fuel and maintenance and the driver’s time.
    In my opinion, to not question rampant highway building, including to continue the “BC Ferries is part of the highways system” narrative, is to subscribe to the 50 year-old attitudes that got us into the climate and economic predicament we’re in. The highway-ferry contract will ultimately lead to endless sprawling subdivisions up the slopes of the Sunshine Coast and eastern Vancouver Island and to Lower Mainland level congestion, and will bring us ever closer to the $100 billion mark in provincial debt.
    To proceed forward, we need to start moving more people and fewer cars at lower cost, to not create yet more forever-subsidized road space (that has not worked in any jurisdiction in the world that tried), and to not commission more expensive boats designed to carry hundreds of live-weight tonnes in vehicles, but to build far more sea and rail public passenger transport amenities linked to increasingly compact cities and towns, all of which are inherently more efficient from many perspectives. The consequences of not doing so will leave our communities ill-prepared for climate adaptation (which may require using less overall energy) and exposed to price volatility in fossil fuels.
    It would be really cool to see this alternate perspective to the outdated Ministry of Transportation’s Whacky Bennett brand of testosterone-saturated freeway building.
    All the best.

  5. Stephen Hume replies, with another reply by yours truly following.
    Actually, […] when I first wrote about the chaos last summer it was in response to many requests from residents of Powell River and the Sunshine Coast that I do so.
    http://www.vancouversun.com/stephen+hume+ailing+ferries+slow+service+sunshine+coast/12089919/story.html
    http://www.vancouversun.com/stephen+hume+grounded+ferry+exposed+deep+flaws+contingency+plan/12104286/story.html
    There have been about five attempts to run foot passenger only ferry services from Nanaimo and Victoria. All failed.
    Three new ones are planned. Fares from Victoria are expected to be $80 one way. Fares from Nanaimo are expected to be about $40 one way. It will be interesting to see consumer reaction to this.
    Meanwhile, the group advocating for land links is centred in Powell River.
    It’s my job to provide a forum for discussion of diverse points of view. Doing so doesn’t represent advocacy of the points of view expressed by various groups.
    I’ve pointed out frequently that while ferry passengers on coastal routes pay 85% of costs at farebox, TransLink passengers pay about 50% and Inland Ferry users pay 0%.
    Stephen Hume
    ***
    Hi Stephen,
    Thank you for your reply and rationale. I have always appreciated your columns and the forum they provide.
    On passenger ferries, I am not aware of any attempts by the public sector to flesh out a decent shuttle service with good transit connections timed to the ferries on the Island or Sunshine Coast. This is odd because BC Ferries was supposed to address this issue in a planning and consultation effort a year or so ago. All the attempts you mentioned, if memory serves, were by the private sector with smaller boats (300 passengers or less) aimed to the tourist or luxury market, with the exception of Harbour Lynx which ultimately failed in part due to ongoing mechanical issues, a lack of fleet capacity, and winter weather. My wife once took Harbour Lynx to Victoria during summer in the 90s and enjoyed it. The fare was $25. Because Transport Canada requires a certain level of staffing per boat capacity, the operating costs per passenger were also quite high in winter when fewer people wanted to rock and roll in a small boat on the Salish Sea.
    I think it’s time for BC Ferries, possibly with help through the federal infrastructure program, to look at diversifying into passenger-only service as a supplement to the expensive car-carrying standard. The infrastructure and funding required would be a fraction of that required to transport vehicles, and BCF could consider larger boats suitable for winter (500+ passengers). You don’t need fancy high-speed jet boats or hydroplanes. Boats than run on standard diesel technology coupled with advanced high-efficiency propulsion can attain moderately higher speeds that will shave 15 minutes off a crossing compared to the typical ferry destined to berths in suburban parking lots. I’ve also read that trimarans are a lot more stable and efficient on open seas than catamarans, with a cost roughly five per cent more (source: Austal Marine).
    The main difference would be public service versus private service with a goal to break-even before earning a profit. I say that in light of the fare structures you correctly illuminated.
    For now, it’s an idea that needs to be explored much further rather than dismissed, and I hope Sunshine Coasters would eventually see this as an affordable alternative over highways that will literally destroy their communities.
    Cheers
    MAB

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