April 22, 2016

The Millennials are still here!

According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association.

From Business in Vancouver:

Millennials

The population of millennials in the City of Vancouver grew by 15,800 individuals, or 9.5%, between 2005 and 2015. … In addition, home ownership rates for the millennial age group were significantly higher during the most recent census than in the previous decades.

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      1. Allow me. According to the article, this is a 9,5% increase in population over 10 years, 2005 to 2010, whereas the overall population increased by 18%. That’s kind of suspect right there. Ten years is also too long of time interval to make this kind of claim for. All in all, a brilliant job of cherry-picking data. I suspect some of the Fraser Institute’s statisticians moonlight for the BCREA.

        1. @garfisher thanks for stepping in and giving Agustin the schooling he sought in statistics. Given that Vancouver is closing empty schools are closing it can also be seen that the Millenials definitely aren’t raising kids in Vancouver. My guess the ones who are here stay for their one bedroom apartment, party years and leave once they marry and have kids.

  1. According to BC Stats, the absolute number of people aged 20-34 has increased per the BCREA. But it’s also true this age group has declined slightly as a percentage of the general population.

  2. We need to normalize the data with demographic changes. If there’s an boomer echo of millennials, it’s not unsurprising that their numbers are increasing. But, are they increasing at the rate expected? How do we compare to other cities? Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Toronto? If a million people are moving here, and only 5% of them are young families, that’ll tell you something.

    Also, the problem with using ages down to 20 is that it is over represented by students. Students don’t abandon cities. Contrary, students from around the province (or even the world) migrate to cities, usually without even thinking about cost of living or job opportunities. They only start leaving after they’re finished school and starting to look at where their futures lie. If any city wants to artificially increase people in their 20s, it just needs to expand it’s post-secondary institutions like we have.

    A better measurement would be turnover. Even a bad employer has no problems getting stacks of resumes and job applicants. But, if the turnover rate is high, it means the employees are unhappy. Do we have a millennial turnover problem? All the open letters from millennials that I’ve read in the news are from those who moved here, found no hope, and then left. Net change is 0.

    1. We need to measure beyond Vancouver. Vancouver is a small city. We need to measure the Metroplex, ie Greater Vancouver, incl. New West, Surrey, Burnaby, N-Van, W-Van, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Delta etc .. I doubt very much that millennials are leaving. If I walk around Yaletown and downtown and Kits I see a lot of young folks, for example.

      MetroVan is over 50% of BC’s population. I doubt very much that population mix is very different from the rest of BC or the rest of Canada.

      What is missing in Vancouver and area is the proper monetization of its brand, i.e. taxation of foreign owned real estate. It has to be taxed far higher: on acquisition, while holding and when sold. How about a 25% land transfer tax, triple the property tax and 50% withholding tax on gain when sold for foreign owned (directly or indirectly) real estate ? That would give BC residents, incl. millennials starting to buy a condo or small house or townhouse, a 23% advantage on acquisition.

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